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Jan Brewer rides Arizona's immigration law to victory

Governor's wide lead over Dem Goddard highlights comeback

by Casey Newton - Nov. 3, 2010 10:37 AM

The Arizona Republic

Gov. Jan Brewer scored an easy win over her opponents on Tuesday, fueled by her staunch support of Arizona's controversial immigration law and a national mood that favored Republicans.

Early returns showed Brewer defeating Democrat Terry Goddard by a significant margin. Libertarian Barry Hess and Green Party candidate Larry Gist trailed far behind.

"Tonight, the people have redeemed and renewed America," Brewer said at Republican Party headquarters Tuesday night.

Brewer's victory Tuesday capped off a remarkable political comeback for a candidate dismissed as "toast" by members of her own party as recently as March. Elevated to the Governor's Office after Janet Napolitano became Homeland Security secretary, Brewer spent her first year in office locked in a heated budget battle with her fellow Republicans in the Legislature.

This year Brewer found her political footing, signing Senate Bill 1070 and becoming a national figure on immigration issues. Vocal opposition to federal health-care reform further enhanced her standing among Arizona's electorate.

Goddard predicted that concerns over immigration would subside over the summer, but a Department of Justice lawsuit against the law kept it in the news - and on voters' minds - throughout the campaign season.

The issue was back in the headlines again Monday, as Brewer traveled to San Francisco to attend a hearing in the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

In May, the governor also fought successfully - and almost single-handedly - for a temporary sales-tax increase to ease the state's budget deficit.

The 1-cent-per-dollar sales-tax hike drew strong opposition from Republican and Democratic lawmakers alike. Brewer pushed ahead anyway, and 64 percent of voters supported the measure.

The move also proved to be canny politically. Supporting the sales tax allowed Brewer to avoid some cuts to education and public safety, inoculating her against charges from her Democratic opponents that she was out of touch.

Brewer's strength was revealed during her primary campaign, when three well-funded opponents suspended their campaigns or withdrew from the race before the election. Brewer sailed to victory over political newcomer Matt Jette.

As Brewer's stock rose, Goddard's declined. The two-term attorney general decided to run with public financing, limiting his ability to get his message out. He chose to avoid active campaigning until after the primary, by which time Brewer's lead in the polls solidified.

Goddard's election strategy involved turning voters' attention to the state's battered economy, which has struggled to recover from the collapse of the housing bubble. But the strategy never gained traction, as immigration and national issues remained foremost in voters' minds, according to opinion polls.

On Tuesday, Goddard said he had been frustrated by the prominence of immigration issues in this year's election.

"Nothing is more important than getting our economy back on track, and yet usually what I'm asked about is my opinion of (SB) 1070 and whether the court's going to find it illegal or not," Goddard said. "I think it's imperative that Arizona get down to the business of fixing what ails our state economy."

While Brewer appeared to win handily Tuesday, the governor will face a series of challenges almost immediately.

Arizona faces a budget deficit in the current fiscal year of $825 million, or 8.6 percent of the general fund. The failure of Propositions 301 and 302 that were aimed at easing the deficit makes the prospect of a special session on the budget likely. The state faces an additional deficit of $1.4 billion next year, and Brewer has ruled out any additional tax increases to close the gap.

Over the medium term, economists do not expect housing, the primary driver of the state's economy, to rebound until 2014.

The state also will lose two major sources of income during the next governor's term, as federal stimulus dollars disappear and the sales-tax increase voters approved this year expires.

Brewer has called for further spending reductions coupled with a public-private partnership aimed at bringing new industries to the state.

Brewer names three big sources likely to be cut: the Department of Health Services, the Department of Economic Security, and education, at the K-12 and college levels.

Those cuts would come on top of $2.2 billion in permanent spending reductions over the past two years.